After years of tight supply that sent arabica futures to record highs, Dutch bank Rabobank expects the tide to turn. For the 2026/27 coffee year it projects a global surplus of 8.9 million bags, with output of about 181.7 million bags against consumption of 172.8 million.
The swing is driven mainly by Brazil, where the harvest is forecast at roughly 73.3 million bags, helped by favourable weather and growers reinvesting after several high-price seasons. Rabobank expects most of the extra coffee to go toward rebuilding inventories that have run thin in warehouses and consuming markets.
Futures prices are already drifting lower, with speculative funds unwinding positions and accelerating the slide. Still, the bank cautions that weather shocks or demand proving more resilient than expected could erode the surplus faster than forecast.
Source: CoffeeTalk