The ceremonial-grade matcha shortage that began in late 2024 has continued into 2026, with prices for tencha — the shade-grown leaf used for ceremonial matcha — still well above 2024 levels. The cause is structural: tea bushes take years to reach full production, the finest harvest happens only once a year in spring, and Japanese producers also face an aging agricultural workforce.
Global demand for matcha has grown extremely fast in recent years, far outpacing the rate at which Japan can expand tencha-growing acreage. Industry analysts believe the elevated prices are unlikely to return to levels from a few years ago, representing more of a long-term market reset than a temporary spike.
For matcha green tea drinkers, this translates into higher costs and greater attention to product authenticity, as demand continues to outstrip available supply.
Source: Kettl