Japan shipped a record ¥72.1 billion worth of matcha abroad in 2025 — double the previous year — and exports for January to May 2026 are running ahead again. Demand, driven largely by younger drinkers, is now colliding with supply: in August, Meiji pulled a matcha ice cream that had been on sale since 2002 because it could no longer source enough powder.
The squeeze is structural. Japan's main tea-growing area has fallen to roughly 25,400 hectares, and some projections see it dropping to around 5,000 hectares by 2050. Growers are ageing, successors are scarce, and about 40% of fields hold bushes more than 30 years old. Switching from sencha to tencha — the shade-grown leaf that is stone-ground into matcha — takes years and demands more careful cultivation, so many farmers are holding back, unsure the boom will last.
Some are betting on it anyway: exporter Hamadasaen opened a ¥600 million plant in March with capacity for 200 tonnes a year. Meanwhile, China and India are expanding their own output.
Source: Seoul Economic Daily