After a turbulent summer, the global coffee market has entered a quieter stretch. According to an analysis published on Monday by Comunicaffe International, December arabica futures closed at 280.50 cents per pound on ICE New York on 18 September, 9.4% below the early-month peak, having touched 276.50 cents — the lowest level since late June. November robusta settled at $3,396 per tonne, 1.9% off its recent high.
The main explanation is an easing of the factors that rattled traders in previous months: the physical market has stabilised, Brazilian warehouses are filling as exports recover, and weather has been broadly favourable across the major producing countries. Certified arabica stocks in New York have climbed to 258,415 bags after hitting a historic low of 217,646 bags on 15 September, and two major market players are reportedly planning to certify a further 150,000–200,000 bags each.
The calm is not complete, though. Vietnam's 2026/27 crop is estimated at around 31 million bags, down from 32.5 million last year, while output in Mexico and Central America could slip slightly to 16.8 million. The biggest uncertainty remains El Niño, whose effects could once again upset the market's fragile balance.
Source: Comunicaffe International