Certified arabica coffee stocks on the ICE exchange have fallen to around 226,242 bags, very close to the November 2023 low of about 224,000 bags and near the lowest level since 1999. Traders are rushing to rebuild inventories before new European deforestation-free product rules take effect in January 2027.
A Reuters poll of analysts points to arabica trading near US$3 per pound by the end of the year. At the same time, the market expects a global surplus that could widen from 1.7 million bags in the 2025/26 season to more than 8 million in 2026/27, helped by a Brazilian crop forecast to rise more than 17%.
This is not a tea story, but movements in the coffee market ripple across the whole hot-drinks industry, including costs for shops that sell both.
Source: Perfect Daily Grind